Curse

arcanemacabre · Mar 22, 2008, 05:30 AM // 05:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzer

All monster drops are generated and assigned the moment you walk into the zone. There was a thread (I think on guru) that proved this by having two players go into the same zone at exactly the same time. They got identical drops. Pretty interesting

This is true, I remember that thread. Assuming it wasn't a hoax, it did give some interesting data. I still don't know what to make of it.

I do have something to add, though. I noticed that all event items tend to not be on the same drop table as everything else. Sometimes a mob will drop both a regular loot item and an event item at the same time. Also the fact that everything in the game that is killable will drop event items including Zaishen, untamed pets, and dummies on the Isle of the Nameless. So I'm thinking it's some kind of mass code added to all of Guild Wars that NPCs killed by players have xx% chance to drop event item. Which goes back to what I said about everywhere, anytime. You kill something, you have a chance to get one of these things.

Roo Ella · Mar 22, 2008, 06:54 AM // 06:54

I have been doing Nolani academy Gate farm solidly and solo for the last 7 or 8 hours ( I need a life lol ) I haven't changed farming spots
or the way I'm farming and drops are still the same to me as when I first started I am writing them down after each run for statistic purposes
cause I'm weird like that.

Sometimes a run will yield 5 to 6 drops other runs yield 2 or 3 but it evens out over time.
I have noticed every 7th run the monk boss char that comes near the gate will drop 2 event items plus a normal drop at the same time and the same item.

bhavv · Mar 22, 2008, 07:25 AM // 07:25

I didnt get any changes after the update. Some times I only get 1-2 drops, others I get 5+.

Its totally random.

My second run this morning, I cant really complain! -

http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o...avvv/gw046.jpg

o.O The following run I got one gold, 4 eggs, 2 bunnys.

Me lucky.

And then the fourth run o.O

http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o...avvv/gw048.jpg

XD XD XD XD XD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the fifth - 3 eggs, 2 bunnies. Ok i'll stop now.... Maybe XD

And then, on the 6th run.........................

.....................

.....................

I just got 2 bones lol. Totally random.

strcpy · Mar 22, 2008, 07:45 AM // 07:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

Just to let you know, the code in GW 1) is made by fallible humans - errors can occur, and 2) contain RNGs that are never totally random. Comparing it to 'everyday happenings' affected by superstitions is way off target.

Just to let you know I'm software engineer so I'm quite aware of how code works. In the discussion on all the different anti-farming codes have been done and it is shown to be random. So far there is nothing shown to suggest otherwise with easter drops yet we already have all the secrets on how to make them drop more often (hey, even *less* data but just a sure on the reasons).

Also comparing RNG's to everyday random stuff is perfectly valid, it is even valid if we are discussing PRNG's (just so you know, there is a difference). There are plenty of PRNG's that exhibit greater amounts of randomness than those "everyday happenings".

In both cases the output is statistically random and people see patterns where none exist - spilling salt bringing bad luck is just as strong as the vast majority of anti-farming methods people post (that is - totally wrong and has no basis in reality).

While the Wiki isn't always the best source for information they do have a decent writeup on random number generators (both the algorithmic kind and the ones produced from physical phenomena) at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator and how statistically random those come out to be (including good and bad PRNG's - if you search the links you will even find a good analysis of a few of the bad PRNG's and note they do *not* behave in way consistent with they way many gamers think bad ones do).

Of course, as with superstitions people always knew they were right and had their nice little reasons too - unfortunately they made absolutely no sense once they were rigorously studied.

arcanemacabre · Mar 22, 2008, 08:09 AM // 08:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by strcpy

...

And yet you don't mention that a single misplaced number or decimal can throw the whole thing off (human err FTW). That's pretty much my point. Normal everyday happenings, despite often being guided by humans, are left more up to chance than something made by human hands designed to be random.

In other words, if the coders want the drop rate to be 10%, and put it at 1% instead, that could be overlooked and while still random, it would happen much less frequently than intended. Someone complaining about droprate isn't immediately wrong just because 'they don't understand how random works.' There is that possibility that something really is wrong, and someone overlooked that 1% number. Again, not that it's the case here, just saying in general. Jumping to conclusions is bad any way you look at it.

The superstition example is relevant, though, just as it is with people choosing their kid's birthdays as lottery numbers.

Master Knightfall · Mar 22, 2008, 08:15 AM // 08:15

Quote:

When a bad guy is killed the game generates a random number, this number is then used to reference a drop table. The drop table then indicates what the drop will be. (although I suspect for the 'easter' treats and so forth I think there's 2 numbers generated, one for the normal drop and one for the treat.

Wrong, where do you get your information from? lol When you ENTER a zone or mission all the mobs drops are calculated from that moment and randomly spread out to the futherest away from where you zone in as so people can't just camp farm the most immediate mobs for the best loot.

And get this after the update in NORMAL mode I got 3 golds, 6 bunnies and 2 easter eggs where I farm so I'm quite happy with the update IF that were the reason for my success, but, I know it isn't cause I'm smarter than that.

Akolo · Mar 22, 2008, 08:26 AM // 08:26

its quite funny to see that people still believe in antifarm code, "the more people who farm the less drops" etc XD. its completely random, based on when you go in, and changing char etc wont affect any

manitoba1073 · Mar 22, 2008, 09:26 AM // 09:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

This is true, I remember that thread. Assuming it wasn't a hoax, it did give some interesting data. I still don't know what to make of it.

I do have something to add, though. I noticed that all event items tend to not be on the same drop table as everything else. Sometimes a mob will drop both a regular loot item and an event item at the same time. Also the fact that everything in the game that is killable will drop event items including Zaishen, untamed pets, and dummies on the Isle of the Nameless. So I'm thinking it's some kind of mass code added to all of Guild Wars that NPCs killed by players have xx% chance to drop event item. Which goes back to what I said about everywhere, anytime. You kill something, you have a chance to get one of these things.

That thread was wrong. Only the types of loot is generated at entering zone. Loot is then allocated at the time of cratures deaths ( thus why you see the ToD/AoE bug).

Yes event items, tomes, and those sort of items are on a different loot table. Which is why you can get double event items to drop from regular creatures.

Davros Uitar · Mar 22, 2008, 02:54 PM // 14:54

Well my drops got better after the update - conspiracy or just random stats - the mind boggles.

Vamis Threen · Mar 22, 2008, 03:46 PM // 15:46

After the update, my drops seemed poorer for the next few runs. Because I was suspicious, I noticed it. You can find out more about this in a thing called "psychology".

However, after that my drops seemed to go back to normal, and when I'd done many many runs, I got the impression there was no difference. You can find out more about this in a thing called "statistics".

Stoneys Rock · Mar 22, 2008, 03:54 PM // 15:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

I'd love to believe that.. Facts don't bear it out. I did a dozen runs before the update. NOT ONE of those runs dropped less than 4 'easter' treats.Download update, que another dozen runs, and NOT ONE of those runs dropped more than 4 'easter' treats. That to me isn't random.

My golden egg drops are fine. How can you turn random figures to facts? You may get 0 one run and 10 the next if your very lucky/unlucky. No different from killing 5 bosses with a pug and one person getting all the greens, its not evil game mechanics its unbiased randomness even if the odds don't quite weigh in that favour.

Omega Precept · Mar 22, 2008, 08:22 PM // 20:22

Yesterday before the update I was getting 5-8 eggs per run (consistently). After the update (immediately and for the rest of the day) I was only receiving 2-3 (consistently). It is plausible that with the update they may have changed the Egg drop rate. However I dont really care because I am still getting my drops and have 2 stacks of eggs already

As for the Anti-Farm Code that was changed when they added Loot Scale...

Which I don't want to talk about because it gets me very angry thinking about to this day.

MithranArkanere · Mar 23, 2008, 01:31 AM // 01:31

Last time I hcecked they were:
- Golden Eggs: 8%
- Chocolate Bunnies: 8%.

Stockholm · Mar 23, 2008, 01:33 AM // 01:33

The Bot's stopped farming for gold and went for the egg's and bunnies, as a diversion, thats why eggs are getting nerfed.

Neo Nugget · Mar 23, 2008, 02:08 AM // 02:08

I'm getting a really crappy drop rate in pre, don't feel like grinding countless hours, even though it would be nice to get that treasure hunter title in pre >.>

Antheus · Mar 23, 2008, 02:20 AM // 02:20

And this is why Las Vegas casino industry flourishes...